What will Malta’s population truly be by 2050?

Population statistics vary and unfortunately there is a lot of wrong predictions and I would add fake news about them too.

One thing I know for sure in the world there is enough space for everyone and there are enough resources for everyone. But we are led to think otherwise.

What is Malta’s case when it comes to population? The articles by our media portal Times of Malta give a hotch-potch of different statistics.

In August 2008 Times of Malta’s article stated that by 2035 Malta’s population is expected to reach 429 000 but that it will decline to 405 000 by 2060.[1]TOM quoted these statistics according to a Eurostat report on the likely future size and structure of the EU population. By today the year 2022 we already know that this is false because we are already up to 516 000. In fact former Minister and MP Evarist Bartolo shared his thoughts on this local situation asking how many people Malta can take since with the current 516 000 we already feel suffocated suffocated by buildings and suffocated by cars adding that in the coming years we are expected to continue to increase and reach 668 000.[2]With these latest statistics Bartolo was quoting another article by TOM which again quoted a Eurostat report stating that by 2050 Malta’s population is expected to hit 668 000.[3]

All this shows that previous predictions were under-reported. In fact TOM itself states that “Past predictions by the EU’s statistical arm had underestimated the rapid pace of development in Malta over a short period of time and the resulting influx of foreign workers.”

In 2011 the same EU’s statistics arm Eurostat predicted that “Malta’s population is expected to fall by 26 000 by 2060 to well below the 400 000 mark” and that “the island will have 387 000 inhabitants in 50 years’ time” (that is in 2060).[4]Again this is misleading.

A rise in our local population cannot be pointed at our birth rate. According to Lovin Malta “Maltese men today likely have half the sperm counts their grandfathers had at their age”[5]and consequently it is predicted that by the year 2045 most western couples will have to rely on assisted reproductive services adding that “Malta could face a reality where the population could suffer extensively in the near future.”

So if the Maltese population is going to increase drastically but not by birth can we rightly deduce that it is because of more influx of foreign workers?

Thus the question that needs to be asked is the following. What will Malta’s population truly be by 2050?


X (Formerly Twitter)